Key Takeaways
- Nebius delivers Q1 financial results on May 13, with analysts projecting revenue growth of approximately 578–600% compared to last year, reaching $375–389 million
- Shares have climbed more than 120% in 2025 and approximately 554% over the past twelve months, hovering near record levels around $196
- The firm maintains a $46 billion pipeline of committed contracts, highlighted by a $27 billion Meta partnership and a $19.4 billion Microsoft arrangement
- The company completed its $643 million purchase of AI technology firm Eigen AI, marking its second major acquisition this quarter
- Wall Street consensus shows 8 out of 10 analysts recommending the stock as a Buy; Goldman Sachs maintains a $205 valuation target
Nebius approaches its first-quarter financial disclosure on May 13 with shares trading at historic peaks and significant attention from the investment community. The stock currently sits around $196, marking a dramatic rise from below $27 twelve months prior.
Wall Street forecasters anticipate quarterly revenues between $375 million and $389 million, representing a year-over-year increase of approximately 578–600%. The organization has not yet reached profitability. Analyst models point to an expected loss of $0.77 per share, widening from the $0.41 deficit reported in Q1 2025.
While top-line figures will draw attention, market participants are primarily interested in a more critical question: Nebius’ ability to convert its massive $46 billion commitment pipeline into tangible operating cash generation.
This substantial backlog stems from three cornerstone agreements. The largest is a $27 billion arrangement with Meta, finalized in March, which encompasses $12 billion in dedicated AI infrastructure over a five-year period beginning early 2027, alongside an additional $15 billion option for expansion capacity. A $19.4 billion supply contract with Microsoft and a $2 billion strategic stake from Nvidia complete the framework.
Planned capital investments for 2026 are substantial — ranging from $16 billion to $20 billion. Company leadership indicates that approximately 60% of this outlay will be funded through contract-secured resources. A $4.34 billion convertible bond issuance provides additional financial flexibility.
For calendar year 2026, executive guidance points toward revenues between $3 billion and $3.4 billion. The extended outlook targets an annualized revenue trajectory of $7–9 billion by year-end 2026, up substantially from $1.25 billion recorded at the conclusion of 2025.
A positive development from the fourth quarter of 2025: adjusted EBITDA reached profitability for the first time, recording $15 million compared to approximately a $64 million deficit in the prior year period. The AI cloud division achieved an adjusted EBITDA margin of 24%.
The Eigen AI Acquisition
Just two weeks ahead of the earnings announcement, Nebius disclosed its acquisition of Eigen AI, a 20-member startup founded by MIT graduates, for $643 million. The transaction structure includes up to $98 million in cash consideration and 3.8 million Class A shares.
Eigen’s expertise centers on post-training enhancement for open-source artificial intelligence models — including quantization techniques, KV-cache optimization, and proprietary CUDA kernel development. The combined entity has already launched optimized implementations of DeepSeek, Llama, and Qwen, achieving processing speeds reaching 911 tokens per second.
This technology will integrate directly into Nebius’ Token Factory infrastructure. The acquisition represents the company’s second deal in a three-month span, following the $275 million Tavily purchase completed in February. Both transactions signal a strategic evolution beyond basic infrastructure toward higher-margin platform offerings.
Wall Street’s View
Goldman Sachs elevated its price objective to $205 following the Meta announcement, increasing revenue projections for 2027–2030 by 30–54%, while maintaining its Buy recommendation.
Wolfe Research launched coverage with a Neutral stance and established a fair value band of $80–$170, acknowledging strong demand fundamentals while highlighting execution challenges and financing uncertainties. Cantor Fitzgerald initiated coverage with an Overweight rating and a $129 price target. Freedom Capital Markets shifted to Hold following a 70% rally since its February Buy recommendation.
Currently, eight of ten Wall Street analysts maintain Buy ratings on NBIS. The consensus price target stands at $174.33.
Institutional shareholding represents just 22% of outstanding shares. Millennium Management established a fresh position, UBS expanded its exposure, and Oppenheimer increased its stake by nearly 91% during the fourth quarter.
The quarterly earnings conference call is scheduled for 8 a.m. Eastern Time on May 13.
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