XRP Whale Selling Hits Four-Year Low While ETF Demand Surges to New Heights

Key Highlights

Table of Contents

XRP has climbed approximately 30% since hitting a February bottom at $1.11, now hovering around $1.41
Crypto analyst MilkybullCrypto projects XRP could reach $12 based on a decade-long ascending channel pattern
Whale deposits of XRP to Binance have plummeted to 736 million tokens, marking a four-year low from March’s 2.6 billion
Spot XRP exchange-traded funds in the United States attracted $81.6 million during April, with May’s first week adding $28.17 million
Technical analysts warn that losing the $1.33 support level could trigger a decline to $0.93, representing a potential 30% correction

XRP has staged an impressive recovery of approximately 30% from its February trough around $1.11, prompting cryptocurrency analysts to highlight a potential advance toward $12 based on technical formations and evolving blockchain metrics.

Crypto analyst MilkybullCrypto presented a monthly timeframe chart demonstrating XRP’s movement within an ascending channel formation established in 2014. The digital asset currently trades near the channel’s lower boundary, positioned between $1.30 and $1.40—a region that has historically served as a launchpad for substantial upward movements. According to MilkybullCrypto’s assessment, XRP is “probably going to $12,” a target corresponding with the channel’s median line.

$XRP is on a critical level that usually triggers a strong rebound
Probably going to $12 the midpoint value pic.twitter.com/scRH3GqAxs
— MikybullCrypto (@MikybullCrypto) May 7, 2026

XRP’s monthly Relative Strength Index has retreated into the 40–45 territory, a threshold that has frequently preceded significant bullish price action. Market analyst JD has similarly identified this zone as a potential cyclical bottom indicator.

JD’s bi-weekly chart analysis reveals XRP completing a breakout from a prolonged symmetrical triangle pattern and currently retesting the breakout region. His price projection establishes a target corridor spanning $8 to $14.

Blockchain Data Indicates Diminishing Distribution Pressure

On-chain analytics strengthen the optimistic outlook. According to CryptoQuant metrics, XRP whale transfers to Binance have contracted to 736 million tokens, declining sharply from 2.6 billion recorded in early March. This represents the lowest level observed in four years.

Reduced whale deposits to exchanges generally indicate decreased selling intention. Historical patterns show that comparable declines have often preceded supply constraints that catalyzed price appreciation.

Analyst Dom observed that despite approximately $35 million worth of XRP being liquidated on Binance throughout the previous week, market participants consistently submitted fresh buy orders to absorb the selling volume. Dom suggested that a breakout above $1.47, particularly if accompanied by Bitcoin strength, could spark a substantial upward movement. Volume-weighted price objectives on his 12-hour analysis chart are positioned near $1.80 and $2.10.

With $XRP's apex fast approaching in May, a decisive break of this structure is likely to be around the corner…
Even if we sweep towards the $0.90/$0.70 targets, the macro trajectory is STILL North.
Appreciate the coverage @MoonLamboio 🫡 pic.twitter.com/MsPfx8wgF1
— 🇬🇧 ChartNerd 📊 (@ChartNerdTA) May 7, 2026

Technical analyst ChartNerd (@ChartNerdTA) shared on X that as XRP’s apex formation nears completion in May, “a decisive break of this structure is likely around the corner.” The analyst emphasized that even a potential sweep into the $0.90–$0.70 zone would not invalidate the broader uptrend, stating the macro trajectory remains oriented upward.

Exchange-Traded Fund Capital Flows Add Bullish Momentum

United States spot XRP exchange-traded funds accumulated $81.6 million in net capital inflows throughout April, marking their most robust monthly performance in 2026. May’s opening week contributed an additional $28.17 million. Combined net assets under management across XRP ETF products currently total $1.43 billion. Traditional finance institution UBS has also allocated capital to the Grayscale XRP ETF.

Rakuten Wallet incorporated XRP support in Japan, broadening the token’s accessibility in one of cryptocurrency’s most significant retail trading markets.

XRP is presently changing hands near $1.41, with a 24-hour trading range spanning $1.40 to $1.46.