TLDR
- USDC commands 64% of adjusted transaction volume market share, surpassing USDT in year-to-date metrics per Mizuho analysis
- First instance of USDC volume leadership since 2019
- Market capitalization remains dominated by USDT at $184 billion compared to USDC’s $79 billion
- Circle stock price target elevated from $100 to $120 by Mizuho
- Transaction volume rather than market cap identified as key indicator for long-term stablecoin supremacy by Mizuho researchers
Tether’s USDT has been dethroned by Circle’s USDC in year-to-date adjusted transaction volume, based on fresh research data from Mizuho, the Japanese investment banking institution, published Friday, March 13.
The development represents USDC’s first volume leadership position since 2019, breaking a years-long streak of USDT supremacy in transaction activity.
According to Mizuho’s calculations, USDC processed approximately $2.2 trillion in adjusted transaction volume through the current year. USDT recorded $1.3 trillion across the identical timeframe.
These figures translate to USDC controlling 64% of the combined adjusted volume between both major stablecoins, based on Mizuho’s assessment.
Mizuho clarified their “adjusted volume” methodology as encompassing transfers through centralized trading platforms, decentralized exchanges, and verified entities — essentially users who demonstrate legitimate economic activity patterns rather than automated or wash trading behavior.
The research team cited practical applications including business-to-business supplier payments, wagering activity on prediction platforms such as Polymarket, and capital flows between centralized exchanges and decentralized finance applications.
What the Volume Shift Means
Transaction volume carries greater predictive weight than market capitalization for determining the ultimate stablecoin market leader, according to Mizuho’s research team.
“We believe that longer term, the stablecoin winner will be the one mostly used in everyday economic activity, rather than just the highest market cap,” Mizuho wrote.
Market capitalization leadership remains firmly in USDT’s control. Tether’s flagship stablecoin maintains approximately $184 billion in total market cap, dwarfing USDC’s $79 billion valuation.
Circle completed its public market debut on the New York Stock Exchange during June 2025. The company’s share price exhibited minimal reaction to Mizuho’s updated research.
The investment bank simultaneously upgraded its Circle price objective from $100 per share to $120 within the same analytical report.
Circle Stock and the Regulatory Backdrop
Legislative efforts that could fundamentally reshape stablecoin markets face continued obstacles in Washington.
The CLARITY Act successfully navigated House approval but encounters persistent delays in Senate proceedings. Contentious discussions surrounding stablecoin interest payments, ethical guidelines, and tokenized securities have created significant procedural friction.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune indicated Thursday that voting requirement legislation would take precedence over digital asset market structure frameworks. His projections suggest the market structure proposal won’t advance to passage before April.
This legislative gridlock introduces additional ambiguity to the stablecoin regulatory environment as Circle maintains its NYSE trading presence.
Per Mizuho’s March 13, 2026 analysis, USDC now controls 64% of adjusted transaction volume when measured against its primary competitor, marking its first volume leadership achievement since 2019.
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