TLDR
- BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes is staying out of Bitcoin markets until the Federal Reserve shifts to monetary easing
- BTC currently trades at approximately $69,926, representing a 45% decline from its October peak of $126,000
- Hayes identifies escalating US-Iran geopolitical conflict as a potential catalyst for crypto and equity market sell-offs
- He emphasizes that “money printing is good for Bitcoin,” clarifying that war itself doesn’t benefit crypto — only the resulting monetary expansion does
- Despite near-term caution, Hayes maintains his long-term forecast of $250,000 per Bitcoin
Arthur Hayes, who co-founded the cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX, has made it clear he wouldn’t allocate any capital to Bitcoin at current levels. During an appearance on the Coin Stories podcast hosted by Natalie Brunell, Hayes explained his strategy of waiting for unmistakable signals from the Federal Reserve.
“If I had $1 to invest right now, would I be putting it into Bitcoin? No. I would wait,” Hayes stated.
Bitcoin currently hovers around the $69,926 mark. This represents a significant 45% pullback from the cryptocurrency’s October all-time high of $126,000.
Hayes highlighted the escalating tensions between the United States and Iran as a primary factor behind his defensive posture. According to Hayes, prolonged conflict increases the probability that the Federal Reserve will need to resume balance sheet expansion.
“The longer this conflict goes on, the higher the likelihood that the Fed has to print money to support the American war machine,” he explained.
Hayes was careful to separate the concepts of armed conflict and monetary expansion. While some in the crypto community suggest warfare benefits Bitcoin, Hayes rejects this interpretation.
“Money printing is good for Bitcoin,” he clarified. “That’s when I’m going to buy Bitcoin — when the central banks start printing money.”
Potential for Further Price Declines
Hayes has also cautioned that Bitcoin might fall below the $60,000 threshold if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate. Such a move, he suggests, could unleash a cascade of forced liquidations.
Bitcoin momentarily dipped to $60,000 on February 6 before recovering modestly. According to Hayes, the current price level still allows for additional downside movement.
He warned that a sustained risk-averse environment in traditional equity markets could pull Bitcoin lower alongside stocks. A comprehensive market downturn, in his analysis, would likely trigger widespread liquidations across cryptocurrency markets.
Contrasting Viewpoints from Market Observers
Hayes’ defensive stance isn’t universally shared among crypto analysts. Market commentator Michaël van de Poppe recently highlighted a powerful rally in the Nasdaq index as an encouraging indicator for Bitcoin.
Van de Poppe suggested there are “not many arguments left for uncertainty” and anticipates continued upward momentum for Bitcoin and alternative cryptocurrencies in the coming weeks.
Hayes hasn’t completely dismissed the possibility of a price recovery. He indicated that he doesn’t anticipate many additional years where Bitcoin remains below the $100,000 threshold.
His ambitious long-term price projection of $250,000 for Bitcoin continues unchanged. Hayes has publicly maintained this forecast since at least the final months of last year.
Hayes emphasized that his current sideline position stems exclusively from macroeconomic considerations, not from any fundamental concerns about Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition.
He stressed that the critical variable to monitor is the timing of central bank policy shifts from restrictive to accommodative stances. When that transition occurs, he indicated, he will resume active Bitcoin accumulation.
Bitcoin momentarily tested the $60,000 support level on February 6 before establishing a modest upward trajectory, and presently trades in the vicinity of $69,926.
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