Executive Summary
- Circle Internet (CRCL) stock briefly reached $90 during intraday trading before settling around $87, building on Wednesday’s approximately 30% earnings-driven surge
- Q4 2025 earnings of $0.43 per share beat analyst consensus of $0.35; quarterly revenue hit $770 million, representing 77% year-over-year growth
- Bernstein retained its Outperform rating with a $190 target, noting the results demonstrated a “clear divergence from crypto”
- Mizuho raised its price target from $77 to $90 while keeping a Neutral rating, warning that falling interest rates could present headwinds
- Both William Blair and Clear Street issued positive reports; Clear Street boosted its target from $85 to $92
Shares of Circle Internet Group briefly pierced the $90 level during Thursday’s trading session before settling near $87.
This advance continued the upward momentum initiated by Wednesday’s roughly 30% rally following impressive fourth-quarter earnings.
Q4 Results Exceed Expectations
For the fourth quarter of 2025, Circle posted earnings of $0.43 per share, beating consensus estimates of $0.35 by approximately 23%. Revenue reached $770 million, representing a 77% surge versus the year-ago period.
These impressive quarterly figures triggered responses from several major Wall Street firms, each providing unique insights into the company’s prospects.
Bernstein maintained its Outperform rating and $190 price target. The investment bank described the quarter as showing a “clear divergence from crypto,” emphasizing improved transaction revenue and growing blockchain rewards tied to Circle’s super validator role on the Canton network.
One significant data point noted by Bernstein: USDC held directly on Circle’s platform rose to 17% of total supply in Q4, up from 14% in Q3.
Management projects USDC circulation to expand at a 40% compound annual growth rate, with additional revenue sources potentially hitting $170 million in 2026, up from $110 million in 2025.
Analysts Offer Varied Perspectives
Mizuho analysts Dan Dolev and Alexander Jenkins boosted their price target from $77 to $90 while maintaining a Neutral rating.
They pointed to prediction markets like Polymarket as a “visible, scaled USDC use case,” generating significant transaction volume that enhances both revenue and reserve assets. Management identified Polymarket as a major contributor to recent USDC growth.
Mizuho also discussed “agentic AI” — autonomous software agents using internet-native currency — as a potential future driver for USDC adoption, though current transaction levels remain negligible.
The firm warned, though, that potential interest-rate cuts represent a risk factor. Reserve income still accounts for the bulk of Circle’s revenue, so any rate reduction would adversely affect that segment.
Other Wall Street Views
William Blair kept its Outperform rating and suggested long-term investors should consider initiating positions.
The firm believes USDC is positioned to emerge as the dominant commerce-focused stablecoin, backed by full fiat reserves, regulatory compliance, and network effects. William Blair cited a roughly $20 trillion cross-border B2B payments market as the long-term addressable market, while acknowledging uncertainty around full market capture.
Consensus estimates project 62% revenue growth for Circle in the current fiscal year.
Clear Street raised its price target from $85 to $92 while maintaining a Hold rating, citing improved fundamentals after the “strong” quarterly performance.
Circle currently trades around $81.88 with a market cap of $14.45 billion, though the stock remains down roughly 51% over the past six months.
Based on InvestingPro data, the company holds more cash than debt on its balance sheet.
Bernstein highlighted Circle’s Arc product, the Circle Payments Network, and developing agentic payment features as critical areas for product innovation moving into 2026.
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