TLDR
- A prediction market on Polymarket asked users to identify the company in ZachXBT’s upcoming investigation.
- Multiple accounts placed substantial wagers on Axiom hours before the report’s publication.
- Blockchain analysts tracked wallets that collectively earned more than one million dollars.
- The top position holder acquired hundreds of thousands of shares at low prices before confirmation.
- ZachXBT confirmed he reached out to Axiom for comment prior to releasing his findings.
Polymarket witnessed unusual trading patterns on Axiom before the company appeared in a public investigation. Blockchain analysts discovered concentrated betting activity that generated substantial returns. The pattern of trades prompted questions about potential advance access to confidential information.
ZachXBT released his investigation findings on Thursday, naming Axiom as the subject. Polymarket had already created a market asking participants to forecast which company would be identified. The market attracted approximately $40 million in volume starting Monday, with odds shifting dramatically hours before publication.
Dramatic Odds Movement Precedes Investigation Release
Polymarket created a market asking participants to predict the company ZachXBT would identify in his forthcoming investigation. Throughout most of the week, traders favored Meteora, pushing its probability above 50%. Late Wednesday witnessed a surge in Axiom’s odds, reaching 46.2% shortly before the report became available.
Lookonchain discovered 12 separate wallets that positioned heavily on Axiom ahead of the announcement. These accounts generated over $1 million in aggregate returns following publication. Polysights identified five additional wallets that invested approximately $50,000 and collected $266,000.
CoinDesk examined blockchain records and determined that predictorxyz held the largest Yes position. This account amassed 477,415 shares at a mean cost of $0.14. The holding currently shows approximately $411,000 in gains, representing a roughly sevenfold increase.
Another unidentified wallet acquired 109,450 shares at $0.33 before the information became widely available. A limited number of accounts controlled most of the Axiom positions. This concentration developed while Meteora maintained market leadership for multiple days.
Company Representatives Received Advance Notice
ZachXBT disclosed on social platforms that he reached out to Axiom for comment before making his findings public. He mentioned conducting multiple conversations with company personnel. He noted that information leakage was “probably inevitable” ahead of the report’s launch.
This communication meant several individuals at Axiom possessed advance knowledge of the forthcoming publication. Anyone with access to this information could have participated in the prediction market or distributed details to associates. The trading activity occurred before ZachXBT made his investigation available on Thursday morning.
Axiom expressed being “shocked and disappointed” by the contents of the investigation. The organization stated it would pursue additional internal review. The company declined to address whether any employees participated in trading on the Polymarket contract.
Polymarket functions from offshore jurisdictions and does not mandate identity verification for participants. This framework presents challenges for connecting particular wallets to specific people. Consequently, determining who placed the trades remains difficult without platform assistance.
The market reached settlement after ZachXBT publicly identified Axiom in his investigation. Yes shares for Axiom distributed payments to position holders following confirmation. The resolution aligned with the concentrated holdings that developed before the public announcement.
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