TLDR
- XRP currently sits near $1.39, posting a 15.6% decline for February 2026, trading beneath both 50- and 200-day exponential moving averages.
- Three technical indicators that preceded the November 2024 breakout — exchange deposit surges, declining USD liquidity, and contracting XRP liquidity — have reappeared.
- Spot XRP ETF products saw $3.04M in net deposits on February 24, elevating cumulative inflows to $1.23B since inception.
- Federal Reserve rate cut probability for June declined to 49.6% following robust consumer confidence figures, dampening cryptocurrency market sentiment.
- Technical analysts project targets between $2.00 for near-term moves and $10 if historical breakout structures replay.
XRP is currently changing hands around $1.39 in late February 2026, reflecting a 15.6% monthly decline. The digital asset remains positioned beneath both its 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages, suggesting near-term bearish momentum.
However, despite ongoing downward pressure, market observers are tracking three technical indicators that materialized immediately prior to XRP’s parabolic advance in late 2024.
During November 2024, XRP rocketed from $0.50 to reach $3.40 by January 2025 after Donald Trump secured the U.S. presidential election. This represented among the most dramatic price surges in the asset’s trading history.
Technical analyst Xaif, referencing CryptoQuant analytics, notes these identical three patterns are developing once more in February 2026.
XRP Could Hit $10 And These 3 Signals Called The Last Explosion Before It Happened
1/ The last time these exact conditions lined up on $XRP charts, price went parabolic shortly after. Right now we are seeing the same setup forming again. Keep reading.
— Xaif Crypto🇮🇳|🇺🇸 (@Xaif_Crypto) February 20, 2026
The initial indicator involves elevated exchange deposits on Binance. Prior to the 2024 surge, substantial XRP movements onto the platform accelerated — notably 15.12 billion XRP on October 20, 2024, and 10.345 billion XRP on November 23, 2024. These deposits didn’t trigger sell-offs. Rather, volatility expanded and prices advanced. Comparable deposit patterns are materializing currently.
Liquidity Compression Returns
The second indicator involves contracting USD liquidity within XRP’s automated market maker pools. Ahead of the 2024 breakout, daily USD liquidity compressed to $1.5 million. During February 2026, this metric ranges between $1.9 million and $2.1 million — representing similar tightening after climbing above $6 million in September 2025.
The third indicator tracks diminishing XRP liquidity. During November 2024, available XRP in AMM pools contracted to 1.5 million preceding the rally. Presently, daily XRP liquidity averages 1.385 million — registering below that previous pre-rally threshold.
Xaif suggests these three indicators, converging simultaneously again, may establish conditions for a move toward $10, representing a 619% appreciation from present levels. He recommends traders verify signals using derivatives metrics and funding rates before committing capital.
Institutional Flows Meet Macroeconomic Resistance
On the institutional front, XRP-spot exchange-traded funds registered $3.04 million in net deposits on February 24, elevating total aggregate inflows to $1.23 billion since product introduction in November. These ETF vehicles have experienced merely five sessions with net withdrawals throughout that period.
US consumer confidence registered 91 in February, surpassing the projected 87, which diminished expectations for a June Federal Reserve rate reduction. The CME FedWatch Tool indicated these probabilities declining from 54.3% to 49.6% on February 24.
XRP settled at $1.3489 on February 24 before advancing 3.66% to $1.3983 during February 25 morning trading. Critical resistance levels are positioned at $1.50, $2.00, and $2.50, while support zones exist at $1.00 and $0.7773.
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