TLDR
- Nvidia’s Q4 FY26 earnings arrive February 25, with Street estimates projecting 68% revenue expansion reaching $66.1 billion.
- Wedbush maintains Buy rating at $230 target, highlighting persistent AI chip momentum and “dominant share position.”
- Analyst consensus stands at Strong Buy, averaging $265.07 price target — representing approximately 39% potential upside.
- Key concerns include hyperscaler custom chip development, TSMC production bottlenecks, and possible AI investment slowdown.
- NVDA shares have climbed only ~2% year-to-date in 2026 following a 40%+ rally throughout 2025.
The chipmaking powerhouse Nvidia will unveil fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 financial results on February 25, with market participants closely monitoring the outcome.
Street projections point to adjusted earnings per share reaching $1.54, reflecting more than 70% growth versus the prior-year figure of $0.89. Total revenue is anticipated to surge 68% on an annual basis to $66.1 billion.
Wedbush’s Matt Bryson maintained his Buy recommendation before the earnings release, establishing a $230 price objective. This target suggests approximately 20% appreciation potential from present trading levels.
Bryson highlighted that Nvidia’s dependable supply chain infrastructure provides a substantial competitive advantage and anticipates the semiconductor giant will surpass consensus figures while issuing forward guidance exceeding market expectations.
His forecast calls for 66% annual revenue expansion across the entirety of fiscal 2026, with the Data Center segment alone positioned to deliver nearly $191 billion. This business unit posted 142% year-over-year growth to $115.2 billion during FY25.
Truist Securities similarly maintained its Buy stance with a $275 price objective. The investment firm anticipates Q4 revenue of $66.07 billion alongside EPS of $1.53, tracking consensus estimates.
Truist highlighted continuing robust demand across AI infrastructure markets, noting cloud service providers consistently revising capital expenditure projections upward. Book-to-bill metrics are also showing improvement throughout the semiconductor sector.
Looking toward Q1 FY27, consensus forecasts call for $72.7 billion in revenue — marking 60% year-over-year advancement.
Competition Is Picking Up
Not all market observers maintain an entirely optimistic outlook. Hyperscale cloud operators are progressively developing proprietary AI accelerators, presenting a potential long-term challenge to Nvidia’s market dominance.
Google has surfaced as a significant competitor, allegedly negotiating to provide Meta — among Nvidia’s biggest clients — with its internally developed TPU processors. AMD is additionally preparing to introduce a new flagship AI server platform within the coming months.
Nvidia secured an agreement reportedly valued at $20 billion to license chip architecture from Groq, a transaction analysts characterize as reinforcing its standing in AI inference applications.
Recently, Nvidia also finalized an arrangement to deliver millions of processors to Meta, though specific financial terms remained undisclosed.
Supply and China In Focus
The primary constraint on expansion may not stem from demand — rather, it’s manufacturing capacity. Nvidia and competitors are vying for allocation on TSMC’s 3-nanometer fabrication lines, potentially restricting shipment velocity.
“We think Nvidia will meet expectations, but it is hard to see them delivering much upside in light of TSMC capacity,” wrote Jay Goldberg of Seaport Research Partners.
One possible catalyst for upside surprise: China. Chief Executive Jensen Huang indicated last month his expectation to restart H200 chip distribution there, with an export authorization reportedly nearing completion. AMD has already obtained licenses for shipping modified processors to Chinese markets.
NVDA shares have advanced merely 2.7% thus far in 2026, marking a pronounced deceleration following the stock’s 40%-plus surge throughout 2025. Market sentiment has experienced pressure from ASIC competition anxieties, data center financing uncertainties, and the DeepSeek concerns that emerged earlier this year.
Throughout Wall Street, the prevailing view remains Strong Buy — with 32 Buy ratings against a single Sell recommendation. The average price objective stands at $265.07, implying approximately 39% upside potential.
Get 3 Free Stock Ebooks
Discover top-performing stocks in AI, Crypto, and Technology with expert analysis.
- Top 10 AI Stocks - Leading AI companies
- Top 10 Crypto Stocks - Blockchain leaders
- Top 10 Tech Stocks - Tech giants
