Key Takeaways
- Lucid’s Q4 2025 results arrive Tuesday, February 24, with options pricing a potential 14.87% price movement in either direction.
- Wall Street consensus calls for a $2.67 per-share loss alongside revenue of approximately $459.5 million, representing a ~96% year-over-year increase.
- The EV manufacturer recently announced workforce reductions affecting 12% of its U.S. employees, focusing on margin enhancement.
- Shares have declined 10% year-to-date, while analysts maintain a consensus Moderate Sell stance on the stock.
- The company isn’t projected to achieve profitability until sometime between 2026 and 2027 as production of the Gravity SUV scales up.
Lucid Group enters Tuesday’s fourth-quarter 2025 earnings announcement facing significant headwinds, with derivatives markets signaling heightened volatility expectations.
Options activity suggests a potential 14.87% price swing following the earnings disclosure. This projection stands in stark contrast to LCID’s historical pattern — the stock’s average post-earnings movement across the previous four quarters measured just 7.73%, meaning current expectations are roughly twice the typical reaction.
Shares have retreated 10% since the start of 2025, trading near $9.59, while the automotive manufacturing sector overall has advanced 7.1% during this period.
Wall Street projections point to a quarterly loss of $2.67 per share, representing deterioration from the $2.20 deficit reported in the year-ago quarter. Revenue estimates center around $459.5 million — nearly doubling the prior-year figure with a 96% increase.
Yet that growth narrative comes with caveats. Lucid has repeatedly underperformed revenue projections over the past 24 months, including the most recent quarter when it delivered $336.6 million — a 68.3% year-over-year gain that nonetheless came up short of analyst expectations.
Company Implements 12% U.S. Staff Reduction
In the days leading up to the earnings announcement, Lucid disclosed plans to eliminate approximately 12% of its domestic workforce. The reductions primarily affect salaried and non-hourly positions.
The company’s Arizona production facility hourly staff, along with logistics and quality assurance teams, remain unaffected by the restructuring. Management characterized the decision as a strategic initiative to enhance gross margin performance and accelerate the path toward profitability.
Wall Street’s Take on LCID
Benchmark’s Mickey Legg maintained his Buy recommendation and $30 price objective on Lucid ahead of the quarterly report. He observed that Q4 delivery figures slightly exceeded his projections and indicated that Tuesday’s key focus areas will include margin trends related to Gravity SUV production scaling, expense management discipline, and available liquidity.
Legg’s timeline for profitability extends to 2026 or possibly 2027.
The broader Street sentiment skews more pessimistic. LCID holds a Moderate Sell consensus rating, derived from two Hold recommendations and one Sell rating issued within the last three months. The average analyst price target of $12.67 suggests potential upside of approximately 30% from current trading levels.
Recent Peer Performance Context
General Motors reported a 5.1% revenue contraction and missed projections, yet shares rallied 6.9% following the announcement. Autoliv exceeded expectations but saw its stock decline 4.7% — illustrating that market reactions to automotive sector earnings releases can defy conventional logic.
Lucid’s fourth-quarter 2025 financial results are set for release Tuesday afternoon, February 24.
Get 3 Free Stock Ebooks
Discover top-performing stocks in AI, Crypto, and Technology with expert analysis.
- Top 10 AI Stocks - Leading AI companies
- Top 10 Crypto Stocks - Blockchain leaders
- Top 10 Tech Stocks - Tech giants
